European countries have been advised to plan for a continued roll-out of Covid vaccines throughout 2023 in order to lessen the impact of the virus on individuals and health services.

According to a report from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), vaccination efforts should focus on protecting older adults and other vulnerable groups, such as those with underlying comorbidities.

It noted that severe Covid-19 continues to disproportionately affect these particular groups. According to ECDC surveillance data, with every new wave of Covid infection, individuals in older age groups are more likely to be hospitalised.

Current data suggests that transmission of the virus in European countries is persisting, therefore there is a continuous risk of severe disease for vulnerable people.

Although no clear seasonal pattern of virus circulation has emerged so far, data shows that the impact of Covid has been much higher during the autumn-winter period, corresponding with the traditional influenza season.

In this context, mathematical models detailed in the ECDC report indicate that an autumn 2023 vaccination programme with very high vaccine uptake targeting those aged 60 years and older could prevent up to 32% of Covid-19-related hospitalisations across the EU and European Economic Area (EEA).

The report states that assuming a very high vaccine uptake, combining an autumn 2023 vaccination programme for people aged 60 years and older with a spring 2023 vaccination campaign for people aged 80 years and older would be expected to prevent up to 44% of Covid-related hospitalisations.

In conducting this mathematical modelling, ECDC experts took into account a number of factors including waning vaccine effectiveness, age groups targeted by the most recent autumn/winter 2022/23 vaccine booster campaign and the 2022 epidemiological situation.

The ECDC said that ultimately, it is up to each individual country to decide what is the best strategy for their population. It also acknowledged that “considerable uncertainties on future epidemiological developments remain and this may influence future decisions”.

The report highlighted that promoting uptake of Covid vaccines has become challenging in the context of diminishing population interest in getting vaccinated and a perception of a return to normality. It said that factors leading to declining uptake need to be identified, even in populations previously willing to be vaccinated.

“Future vaccination campaigns may consider developing targeted communication, focusing efforts on reaching high-priority groups through trusted channels and messengers, and providing clear information on which groups vaccination is being recommended to, the type of vaccines available and the timing. People should also be reminded why it is important to stay up-to-date with vaccination, particularly those in risk groups for severe Covid-19,” the report added.

The ECDC report can be viewed here.